Mar 24, 2014

Hispanics and Asians will be 25% of US Population by 2019

Population Shift: Non-Hispanic Whites to Drop Below 60% of the Population by 2019 

The US population (excluding Puerto Rico) is becoming increasingly multicultural, and more than 40% of the population will belong to one of the 3 major ethnic groups by 2019, according to a recent report [pdf] from Geoscape. This year, non-Hispanic whites are estimated to account for 62.1% of the US population, down from 75.8% in 1990. By 2019, that figure will be down to 59.5%, as Americans of Hispanic and Asian origin will grow to represent about one-quarter of the population. 

That’s a drastic change from 1990, when these groups combined to account for 11.6% of the population. Between 1990 and this year, the share of Americans of Hispanic origin has doubled from 8.8% to 17.7%, while for non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islanders, their population shares are up from 2.8% to 5.1%. 

 Based on these trends, Geoscape projects that the non-Hispanic white population will drop to a minority by 2040. In late 2012, the Census Bureau forecast that the US will become a majority-minority nation in 2043. 

It’s no surprise, of course, that minority groups are growing at rapid rates, but the extent to which these groups are contributing to America’s population growth are noteworthy. Between 2010 and this year, Geoscape estimates that Hispanics (60.3%), Asians (14.5%) and Blacks (12.7%) will have combined for 87.6% of the country’s population growth. Between 2014 and 2019, they’ll comprise 88.9% of population growth. 

How does that work out in absolute numbers? The study forecasts that there will be an additional 1.7 million Hispanic Americans per year between 2014 and 2019, along with about half-a-million more African American and non-Hispanic Blacks and roughly 580,000 more non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islanders. 

In sum, among the projected 334.1 million Americans in 2019: 
  • 198.9 million will be non-Hispanic white; 
  • 64.8 million will be Hispanic; 
  • 41.5 million will be Black; and 
  • 19.3 million will be Asian and Pacific Islanders. 

Of course, these minority groups have various characteristics, and can broken up into sub-cultures across different variables, including language. 

Among Hispanics, for instance, Geoscape says that: 
  • 22% are English-Dependent; 
  • 31% are Bi-Lingual English Preferred; 
  • 14% are Bi-Lingual; 
  • 19% are Bi-Lingual Spanish Preferred; and 
  • 14% are Spanish-Dependent. 

In terms of acculturation, some 16.8% are English dominant, born in the US, 3rd+ generation with few Hispanic cultural practices, while 13.1% are Spanish-dominant recent immigrants (less than 10 years ago) who have primarily Hispanic cultural practices and identify with their home country more than the US. 

Asians, by comparison, tend to be more “Westernized.” Some 38.3% are English-dominant, born in the US, 3rd+ generation with few Asian cultural practices, compared to 13.3% on the other end of the spectrum, who speak nearly no English, recently immigrated as adults, and primarily engage in Asian cultural practices. 

Though they hail from a diverse array of countries, Asians are most likely to be of Chinese and Taiwanese (24%) origin, with Indian (19%) and Filipinos (18%) the next-largest representation. 

MarketingCharts keeps tab on cultural shifts in the US population. Here is a selection of related articles on this topic: 

National Discretionary Spending Trends – and Hispanics’ Growing Influence 
  • Asian Americans: A Young, Fast-Growing, And High-Income Group 
  • 14% of Americans Are Black. 3% of Major Media Ad Spending is Focused on Them. 
  • Asian and Hispanic Households Will Outspend Whites Over The Remainder of Their Lives 
  • Hispanics Were Not The Fastest-Growing Minority Group Last Year 
  • Latino Population Growing Quickly in Non-Traditional Markets 
  • 40% of Hispanics Are Under 21 Years of Age 
  • Marketers Shift Platforms Used to Reach Multicultural Audiences 
  • Asian Americans, The Fastest-Growing Cultural Segment, Boast High Incomes 

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